I consider myself terribly well informed - and yet until it was over - I had no idea the Fed conducted a listening tour.
There was sadly no Las Vegas show type stop on this tour. Indeed, it was the rather dour set you just might expect from the Federal Reserve, Trumpian "bonehead" comments aside.*
What the Fed is hearing from the normal-ish citizens who get invited to these things (kindly available online for hoi polloi) is that few are basking in the economic recovery we are supposedly enjoying. As one Cleveland participant opined "It doesn't feel like a boom yet."
That's a rough analysis considering we're likely somewhere near the final inning of the - statistically speaking - longest economic recovery ever.
On Wednesday, the Fed will almost certainly lower rates by -25bps to below 1.75%, the third rate reduction this year.
And then what? After Wednesday's cut, rates will be at what economists consider a generally neutral rate, that is neither stoking nor taming the economy.
After the rate announcement, pundits will be parsing Powell's words divining what's next. Most are hopeful there's a little stoking - more rate cuts - yet this coming year and many are fearful if there's not.
Weekly Markets Update, Week ending October 25, 2019
Last week the S&P 500 was up 1.22% even as the Dow Jones increased 70bps, the Russell 2000 added 1.53% and the Nasdaq was up 1.90%.
As for US bonds, they detracted -15bps.
Globally, the MSCI World Index increased 1.26% and the Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index was down -17bps.
The Euro Stoxx 50 added 1.26% in local-currency (Euro) and 50bps in USD. Meanwhile, the Topix added 1.63% in local-currency (Yen) and 1.31% in USD.
*This is where I can't resist a wee pitch for Elton John's "Me." Frankly, I don't especially care for his music or even his shtick, but his life story and how he tells it - amazing, inspiring and hilarious.
