With today’s ride, the S&P 500 has officially “corrected,” down 10% from its January record-high.
And yet we beat the drum.
Firstly, US trade tactics seem to be following a pattern. Big news-making announcements followed by comparatively narrow/weak implementation.
Secondly, the fundamentals – especially in the US - remain strong. (Please see prior notes for details. I feel like we go over this point ad nauseam.)
Thirdly, history shows end-of cycle markets are volatile. Yes, we are in the final innings of this expansion ergo more volatility.
In early May, the Trump administration will decide whether to continue to waive sanctions against Iran - another volatility flashpoint. Buckle your seat belt.
Weekly Update through March 29, 2018 The S&P 500 gained 2.06%, even as the Dow Jones added 2.52%, the Russell 2000 advanced 1.35% and the Nasdaq added 1.03%.
As for US bonds, they gained 52bps.
Globally, the MSCI World Index gained 1.53% and the Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index lost -9bps.
The Euro Stoxx 50 added 1.95% in local-currency (Euro) and 1.36% USD. Meanwhile, the Topix gained 3.18% in local-currency (Yen) and 1.83% in USD.
Month-end Update through end-March 2018 In March, the S&P 500 lost -2.54%, the Dow Jones lost -3.59%, the Russell 2000 gained 1.29% and the Nasdaq lost -2.79%.
As for US bonds, they gained 64bps.
Globally, the MSCI World Index lost -2.18% and the Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index gained 1.07%.
In March, the Euro Stoxx 50 lost -2.15% in local-currency (Euro) and -1.49% in USD. Meanwhile, the Topix lost -2.85% in local-currency (Yen) and -2.57% in USD.
