Trade tensions – rather than a trade war – are likely to persist.
However, the end of the equity bull market will probably be due to an overheated economy and rising fiscal imbalances - not trade protectionism.
Both the backdrops for US and global growth remain solid - for now. Our current outlook is still bullish. That said, data suggests we are likely near the final innings of the current expansion.
Weekly Update through March 9, 2018 The S&P 500 gained 3.59%, even as the Dow Jones increased 3.34%, the Russell 2000 added 4.20% and the Nasdaq also added 4.20%.
As for US bonds, they declined -12bps.
Globally, the MSCI World Index was up 2.91% and the Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index lost -19bps.
The Euro Stoxx 50 added 2.90% in local-currency (Euro) and 2.95% in USD. Meanwhile, the Topix gained 42bps in local-currency (Yen) and lost -75bps in USD.
