Tit-for-tat

Trade tensions – rather than a trade war – are likely to persist.

However, the end of the equity bull market will probably be due to an overheated economy and rising fiscal imbalances - not trade protectionism.

Both the backdrops for US and global growth remain solid - for now. Our current outlook is still bullish. That said, data suggests we are likely near the final innings of the current expansion.

Weekly Update through March 9, 2018 The S&P 500 gained 3.59%, even as the Dow Jones increased 3.34%, the Russell 2000 added 4.20% and the Nasdaq also added 4.20%.

As for US bonds, they declined -12bps.                         

Globally, the MSCI World Index was up 2.91% and the Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index lost -19bps.

The Euro Stoxx 50 added 2.90% in local-currency (Euro) and 2.95% in USD.  Meanwhile, the Topix gained 42bps in local-currency (Yen) and lost -75bps in USD.

Nothingburger

Despite last month’s dreary returns, stronger nominal growth and a patient Fed are most likely a positive combo for equities.

First quarter 2018 GDP is anticipated to come in at 2.50%, the same pace as for 2017.

However, economists are estimating a bit higher 2.8% GDP growth by year-end.

This compares with much slower growth of just 1.8% by end-2016.

That said, as we've talked over, it could be well argued the US is in the late innings of this expansion. Despite our currently positive outlook - as February returns attest - we’ve entered a more volatile phase.

Weekly Update through March 2, 2018 The S&P 500 lost -1.98%, even as the Dow Jones lost -2.97%, the Russell 2000 lost -1.00% and the Nasdaq lost -1.05%.

As for US bonds, they gained 2bps.   

Globally, the MSCI World Index lost -2.23% and the Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index gained 17bps.

The Euro Stoxx 50 lost -3.39% in local-currency (Euro) and lost -3.34% in USD. Meanwhile, the Topix lost -2.94% in local-currency (Yen) and -2.04% in USD.

Month-end Update through end-February 2018 In February, the S&P 500 lost -3.69%, the Dow Jones lost -3.96%, the Russell 2000 lost -3.86 and the Nasdaq lost (just) -1.73%.

Meanwhile US bonds lost -95bps.

Globally, the MSCI World Index lost -4.09% and the Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index lost -89bps. 

In February, the Euro Stoxx 50 lost -4.57% in local-currency (Euro) and -6.16% in USD. The Topix lost -3.70% in local-currency (Yen) and -1.33% in USD.

Publilius who?

Anyone Can Hold the Helm When the Sea is Calm

So said Publilius Syrus, the Syrian slave turned famed sententiae writer who lived from 85-43BE.

I came across this quote doing some research on Syria. No, you’re right, it’s not a good investment climate.*

Anyway, perhaps with a little sea sickness still in the craw, it’s a good time to consider why we might bother with human investment advisors.

• We can help you avoid emotional mistakes,

• We can listen and give constructive advice, and  

• We can help you plan and secure your future.

For many of us the last few weeks in the markets have reminded us why AI can help the human advisors - but probably won't replace us. Well, those of us who are human ;-)

Weekly Update through February 16, 2018 The S&P 500 gained 4.37%, even as the Dow Jones added 4.36%, the Russell 2000 gained 4.48% and the Nasdaq gained 5.36%.

As for US bonds, they declined -23bps.                         

Globally, the MSCI World Index gained 4.33% and the Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index added 1.01%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 gained 3.06% in local-currency (Euro) and 4.97% in USD.  Meanwhile, the Topix gained 31bps in local-currency (Yen) and 2.55% in USD.

* I was just trying to understand what in God's name is going on in Syria. Why can't non-combatants, such as children, be allowed to leave war zones? Is that just so 20th century?