Global economic growth is peaking even as US growth remains impressive. For now, we continue to be biased toward US equities.
Volatility is back and we don’t see it declining in the near or mid-term. Clients watch the market zigzag and understandably feel uneasy. They are asking “should I get out now?”
There is no one answer to this question. Many investors are learning their risk tolerance on the fly.
Stomaching risk is relatively easy when markets are relatively calm. That’s sooo last year.
Data supports the premise “time in the market is more important than market timing.” This is because there tends to be a handful of days in a given year that provide above average return.
For example, missing the top 30 days of return in a year usually leaves an investor down for the entire year.
I’ve been reaching out to clients, talking through what a rough-patch or even a recession might mean for their portfolio(s). If we haven’t yet, I hope we get together soon.
Weekly Update through June 29, 2018 The S&P 500 declined -1.31%, even as the Dow Jones lost -1.26%, the Russell 2000 was down -2.46% the Nasdaq lost -2.36%
As for US bonds, they added 34bps.
Globally, the MSCI World Index lost -1.17% and the Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index added 15bps.
The Euro Stoxx 50 lost -1.34% in local-currency (Euro) and 1.09% in USD. Meanwhile, the Topix declined -70bps local-currency (Yen) and -1.45% in USD.
Month-end Update through end-June 2018 In June, the S&P 500 added 62bps, the Dow Jones lost -49bps, the Russell 2000 added 72bps and the Nasdaq gained 98bps.
As for US bonds, they declined -12bps.
Globally, the MSCI World Index lost -1bp and the Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index declined -44bps.
In June, the Euro Stoxx 50 declined -16bps local-currency (Euro) and -11bps in USD. Meanwhile, the Topix lost -85bps in local-currency (Yen) and -2.68% in USD.
