Q1 GDP came in at 2%.When the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, data are reported in nominal terms.
Nominal GDP does not account for inflation, while “real GDP” means inflation is reflected in the figure.
We rarely hear talk of “real GDP” and when we hear “GDP” we can infer it refers to nominal GDP.
By end Q1, US inflation was 2.4%.
This means Q1 real GDP was -0.4% Yep, once inflation is considered, US economic growth shrank in Q1. Oops. Why isn’t this big-ish news?
For now it’s not news because – for now – it's not a trend.
By end-May (most recent data) annual inflation had increased rather considerably to 2.8%. Which doesn’t seem to auger well, until you realize…
According to an Atlanta Fed report released last week, Q2 GDP is likely to come in at a whopping 3.8% (!!!)
For now - it looks like real growth is back on track.
Weekly Update through July 6, 2018 The S&P 500 added 1.56%, even as the Dow Jones gained 82bps, the Russell 2000 was up 3.12% the Nasdaq added 2.40%
As for US bonds, they added 24bps.
Globally, the MSCI World Index gained 1.19% and the Barclays Global Aggregate
Bond Index added 48bps.
The Euro Stoxx 50 gained 1.56% in local-currency (Euro) and 2.16% in USD. Meanwhile, the Topix declined -2.27% local-currency (Yen) and -2.00% in USD.
